Once again, the Southeast Asian Games, that biennial sporting event that brings together the region's best athletes, have come to an end. And since the Philippine Sports Commission actually outdid itself this time with perhaps its most inaccurate gold medal prediction ever (70 golds, or almost double what Team Philippines actually won), it's time for armchair coaches to analyze what went wrong, who should be blamed, and what they would do if they were in charge.
I won't do any of that. Instead, I will break down the performance of selected NSAs and attempt to see what the most optimistic gold medal haul would have been. I just think it's unfair for Team Philippines to be measured against PSC chairman Richie Garcia's overly ambitious projection of 70 golds. When held up against that lofty standard, our athletes will naturally come out looking like major underachievers.
Where Garcia got that projection is anybody's guess, and it certainly won't stand up to scrutiny when you consider that since joining in 1977, the Philippines has never won more than 57 golds in SEAGs held in other countries.
Let's tackle selected sports, starting on top with the NSAs with most golds and work our way downward, and try to give a (hopefully) realistic estimate as to how many more golds each of them could have won.
I didn't include the sports that delivered the maximum number of golds available (i.e. baseball with one and softball's two), the sports that weren't expected to deliver and didn't (football), and new sports where the lack of historical performances made it difficult to gauge their medal outputs (bridge and wall climbing).
I also didn't know what to make of swimming, which laid a big, fat egg for the first time in 12 years. Was this a rebuilding team struggling without the likes of previous winners Miguel Molina and Daniel Coakley, or was this another case of an NSA issue affecting the athletes' training? I couldn't decide, but I figured either way their 0-2-5 gold-silver-bronze output was probably spot on.
Taekwondo (4 golds, 3 silvers, 5 bronzes, 12 medals)
The top-performing NSA in terms of golds and silvers, and second only to athletics in total medals won. The jins could have won one more if two-time Olympian Toni Rivero, who won a gold in Laos in the women's 67kg category, hadn't pulled out at the last minute with a knee injury. Her replacement, Pauline Lopez, managed to snare a bronze.
Possible additional golds: 1
Boxing (4-1-1-6)
ABAP executive director Ed Picson said before the Games that he didn't want to make any predictions about his crew of six men and four women boxers, but he probably wished they could have won a couple more golds. Boxing's two biggest bets — lightflyweight Mark Anthony Barriga and flyweight Rey Saludar — are the latest examples of how success on bigger stages like the Asian Games and world qualifiers doesn't necessarily translate into dominance in the SEAG. Both were favorites to at least make it to the finals of their weight classes, but Saludar could only manage a bronze while Barriga didn't even make it to the podium.
Possible additional golds: 2
Billiards and snooker (3-2-4-9)
Our cue artists won three of the four golds they were expected to win: men's 8-ball, women's 8-ball and women's 9-ball. The one that got away was the men's 9-ball gold, where Jundel Mazon was ousted in the quarterfinals and Django Bustamante settled for the bronze. To be fair, eventual winner Ricky Yang is a savvy veteran, but with Mazon and Bustamante in the last eight, a gold certainly was within reach. Also, men's 9-ball doubles, an event the country has won several times, was scrapped this time.
Possible additional golds: 1
Athletics (2-9-5-16)
Perhaps the biggest disappointment of all. Historically a minimum five-gold contributor in the SEAG, Go Teng Kok's army failed to deliver the goods this time, with only long jumper Marestela Torres and steeplechaser Rene Herrera winning golds. The ongoing feud between PATAFA chief Go Teng Kok and the POC certainly didn't help any. Arniel Ferrera (hammer throw) and Danilo Fresnido (javelin throw) both failed to defend their titles.
Possible additional golds: 2.
Cycling (2-4-7-13)
The good news was that our cyclists were back, after another NSA leadership dispute kept them out of the 2009 Laos Games. The bad news was that two of them, who by all accounts were sure gold medal winners, were disqualified because they possessed US cycling licenses. Additionally, Joey Barba failed to defend his 1.5km mountain bike downhill title, losing by less than a second to the gold medal winner.
Possible additional golds: 1
Wushu (2-4-3-9)
Wushu head Julian Camacho himself said that they should have won three or four more golds. Let's leave it at that.
Possible additional golds: 3
Chess (1-4-3-10)
GM Wesley So, a heavy favorite to produce more than one gold owing to his ELO rating of 2659, won the gold in the blitz category but was upset in the individual standard category by fellow GM Susanto Megaranto of Indonesia to settle for the silver.
Possible additional golds: 1
Bowling (1-4-1-6)
Frederick Ong had the men's masters gold within his sights but lost in the finals to Adrian Ang of Malaysia. Ong and Biboy Rivera also dropped a close fight in the men's doubles to settle for another silver.
Possible additional golds: 2
Tennis (1-2-3-6)
One gold got away in the men's doubles, where Cecil Mamiit and Treat Huey lost a 10-6 tiebreaker in the third set. I was tempted to include the men's team event as well, but Jeson Patrombon and Mamiit-Huey clearly lost in the second singles match and the deciding doubles match.
Possible additional golds: 1
Basketball (1-1-0-2)
We were a good defensive rebound away from scoring a golden double in basketball for the first time ever, but Merenciana Arayi was called for travelling after grabbing a rebound with less than two seconds left and Perlas Pilipinas up 64-61. We all know what happened next.
Possible additional golds: 1
Judo (1-0-6)
Even at age 47, John Baylon was still good enough to win a gold in the 81kg. division, which would have been his 10th in the SEAG. But a costly and uncharacteristic error in his semifinal match ended his gold medal streak at nine.
Possible additional golds: 1
Weightlifting (0-1-2)
The Philippine Weightlifting Association predicted two golds, and with good reason. Hidilyn Diaz was looking to bounce back this year after missing the 2009 SEAG due to chicken pox. The 20-year-old Zamboanguena was coming off a double-gold performance in the snatch and total lift in the recent Asian Youth and Junior Championships, so she seemed like a sure bet in the SEA Games. But she faltered in the 58kg total lift and was only good enough for the silver. Nestor Colonia also won a gold in that same Asian tilt but didn't even manage a bronze in Palembang, finishing fourth in the men's 56kg total lift.
Possible additional golds: 2
Golf (0-0-1)
Ruperto Zaragosa was tied for the lead in individual men's play heading into the fourth and final round. But he skied with an 81 on the last day and tumbled all the way down to ninth place.
Possible additional golds: 1
When you add up all those possible additional golds, it comes out to 19. Add this to the 36 golds actually won and you get 55, still way short of the 70 predicted by Garcia. It would have been more than enough to overtake Singapore for fifth, but just short of dislodging Malaysia (59 golds) for fourth.
Therefore, a more optimistic gold medal target would probably have been in the 50-55 range. Anything above that would have been gravy. But at the end of the day, even if you base it against this modest projection, you have to admit the final count of 36 was still a little disappointing.
That being said, congratulations are still in order for all the athletes who continue to do this despite all the hardships they encounter. Mabuhay ang atletang Pilipino. See you all again in Myanmar!
95 comments