There are 14 games on deck for NFL Week 6, yet there is a very limited selection of teaser legs.
Week 6 teaser options
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+7.5, Total: 46)
The line opened Panthers -1 at home but has shifted to Minnesota being the favorite. You are now getting a home underdog that's ranked second in total defense and third in quarterback pressure but is losing value because of back-to-back losses. And one loss was against the hottest offense in the NFL, the Dallas Cowboys. Can you really fault the Panthers for that one?
The loss to the Philadelphia Eagles was unfortunate. You can’t win games if you throw three interceptions, one of which resulted in an Eagles field goal. Another seven points for the Eagles, however, came from a blocked punt.
The Vikings haven’t exactly shined this season, as coach Mike Zimmer insists the ground-and-pound is the winning formula, which makes it tough to build and hold leads. Last week’s 19-17 win over the Lions was a clear example. The Vikings were 10-point favorites and nearly lost, generating just six points in the second half.
The low game total of 46 is a good indication that the Panthers' defense can keep them within a score. With the Panthers as one half of a teaser leg, there aren’t any ideal nominees for a partner.
The only other (potential) NFL Week 6 teaser option
There aren’t many options now but come game time, more options may open up. With multiple games lined between 3 and 5 this week that don’t lend themselves to a profitable teaser play, you can either look to more risky spots or pass all together.
Remember, one of the most important baselines for putting together a profitable teaser is using spreads that capture the key numbers of three, six, and seven. You want to cross through these numbers.
Los Angeles Chargers (+8.5) at Baltimore Ravens
I have my eye on the L.A. Chargers. The line is set at three but could come off that number with the juice at -115 for the Chargers. You have two teams coming off thrilling wins. The Chargers rallied to beat the Cleveland Browns in a 47-42 shootout, giving up 531 total yards of offense with 230 rushing yards — 161 of which came from Nick Chubb. The Ravens are fourth in rushing yards and sixth in yards per carry, bolstered by Lamar Jackson's running skill.
Meanwhile, Baltimore made Carson Wentz look like a Pro Bowl selection, allowing 390 passing yards and 10.5 yards per pass for the Colts' reclamation project. Few have looked better than Chargers QB Justin Herbert, who's fourth in passing yards and third in passing touchdowns. With a game total of 51.5, this teaser leg could have more variance.
Backing the road favorite
The Kansas City Chiefs at -7 could move to -7.5, which could be a teaser option at -1.5. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS this season and 1-4 ATS as favorites, have lost three games outright and are 2-3 entering Week 6.
The K.C. defense has struggled, ranking at or near the bottom for quarterback pressure, passing defense, and opponent points per play. Taylor Heinecke has had five interceptions this season but if you look at the schedule of teams faced, Washington has played the Chargers, Bills and Saints. Facing the worst defense in the NFL could be a breath of fresh air. On the flip side, the Chiefs have faced Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Josh Allen. To be fair, Patrick Mahomes and Co. are probably not as bad as they look.
With the highest total on the board this week at 55.5, this game likely offers the most variance.
Week 6 NFL teaser
Panthers +7.5 and Chargers +8.5. By process of elimination, this would be the play.
However, it’s also OK to pass. You don’t have to force a bet. As we’ve seen, just because a team can be teased, doesn’t guarantee it will work out.
I am also participating in a pick-five ATS NFL contest and will have Baltimore as one of my five selections. How much longer can the Chargers hold? They have faced the Cowboys, Chiefs and Browns in a four-week stretch. Tough to continue a high-level performance. These reasons serve as disqualifications for backing the Chargers in a teaser. It’s a pass for me this week.