Calling Max Verstappen a massive favorite to win the Italian Grand Prix may be an understatement.
Verstappen has won 10 of the first 14 races of the 2022 Formula 1 season and enters Sunday’s race (9 a.m. ET, ESPN2) at a wild -275 to win. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc is the No. 2 favorite at a distant +600 while Lewis Hamilton is at +800 to get his first win of the season.
It’s easy to see why oddsmakers are confident in Verstappen’s chances at the win. Red Bull’s car has blown everyone else away in a straight line this season and Monza is one of the fastest tracks on the F1 calendar. The track features significant stretches where drivers are flat out like Spa. Verstappen blew away everyone at the Belgian Grand Prix two weeks ago as his Red Bull car ate opponents up at the famous track’s long straights.
The Italian Grand Prix does have a recent penchant for wackiness, however. Pierre Gasly won in 2020 after Lewis Hamilton got a penalty for pitting just ahead of a safety car for a crash by Leclerc and Verstappen suffered an engine problem. Daniel Ricciardo won the race last season as McLaren got a 1-2 finish. Verstappen started that race on the pole but famously crashed out with Lewis Hamilton after Hamilton exited the pits. Verstappen’s car ended up on top of Hamilton’s as the halo device on Hamilton’s car potentially saved his life.
Here are our best bets for this weekend’s Italian Grand Prix. We’re hoping to capitalize on a week where we hit all four of our bets that had positive odds at the Dutch Grand Prix. All odds are from BetMGM.
Max Verstappen to win the pole (-225)
Qualifying should be pretty straightforward for Verstappen. While Ferrari will be trying its best to usurp Verstappen over the course of the weekend, the Red Bull should have more than enough pace.
Both Mercedes drivers to finish in the top six (-200)
The Silver Arrows likely won’t have the pace to challenge for the win unless they’ve made incredible improvements since Spa. But Hamilton and George Russell have been extremely consistent and should continue that at Monza.
Max Verstappen to score the fastest lap (-140)
The only way this bet doesn’t cash is if Verstappen has mechanical problems or if someone pits late in the race for a set of soft tires in an effort to score the fastest lap bonus point.
Sergio Perez to finish in the top three (+100)
Perez has been way off his teammate but finished second at Spa and should have a car that keeps him near the front.
Alex Albon to finish in the top 10 (+175)
This is a bit of a flier but Albon had solid pace at Spa as the Williams has figured out how to find solid top speed.