NASCAR betting: A lot of money is on Kyle Larson to win at Atlanta

·2 min read

Kyle Larson is the overwhelming choice of big money bettors at BetMGM to win Sunday’s Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Larson is the most-bet driver to win the race; 16.5% of wagers are on Larson. And those are significant bets. Over 40% of the handle — the total money wagered on the race — is on Larson to win. The driver with the second-biggest handle is Larson’s teammate Chase Elliott. And Sunday's polesitter is at 10.2%.

Larson has won four races in 2021 and could have won at Atlanta in the spring. He led 269 of 325 laps but was passed late by Ryan Blaney for the win. Larson opened as a +300 favorite to win the race and his odds have dropped to +225. That’s extremely low for a Cup Series favorite.

The second-most bet driver for Sunday’s race is Kyle Busch. Busch (+750) has been bet by 11% of bettors, and 8.1% of the handle is on Busch. That’s the third-most money of any driver.

Somewhat inexplicably, Anthony Alfredo is the second-biggest liability for BetMGM. Just 1% of bets are on Alfredo, but he’s got astronomical odds. At +200000 he returns $2,000 on a $1 bet. He’s not going to win the race — he’s not been competitive all season — but there are clearly a few bettors who like the potential return if a crazy win happens.

Sunday's race (3:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN) is the final race at Atlanta Motor Speedway before the track repaves and reconfigures ahead of 2022. The track is raising the banking in the corners and narrowing the racing surface in what it says is an attempt to make racing closer and more competitive. Atlanta's proposed changes haven't exactly been well-received by drivers, and the reaction after the changes were announced makes it unclear if any drivers were seriously consulted in the redesign process. 

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