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Jabari Smith is the clear favorite to be taken by the Orlando Magic at No. 1 in Thursday night’s NBA draft.
The Auburn forward is at -140 at BetMGM to be picked first. His odds are actually slightly longer than they were on Monday (-165) but have gotten better than the rest of the field. Smith averaged 17 points and seven rebounds a game in 2021-22 while shooting over 40% from behind the arc in his lone college basketball season.
Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren is the No. 2 favorite to be the top pick and he’s at +220 to go first overall. Holmgren’s odds have moved up from +140 just hours ago. The lanky forward feels like a near-lock to go No. 2 to the Oklahoma City Thunder if Smith is taken by the Orlando Magic like most believe.
Duke’s Paolo Banchero is the No. 3 favorite to be the top pick at +225. There have been few envisioned scenarios where Banchero falls out of the top three in the draft past the Houston Rockets. The three forwards seem to be the consensus top three players in the draft as few mock drafts have any other player getting chosen by the Magic, Thunder or Rockets.
That public consensus is reflected in the odds for the top pick, too. No other player has realistic odds to be the No. 1 overall pick. Purdue guard Jaden Ivey is the No. 4 favorite for the top pick and his odds are at +10000. Ivey recently said that he’s had no contact with the Sacramento Kings ahead of the draft — a potential sign that the Kings are looking in a different direction at No. 4 if they believe that Ivey will still be on the board when they pick.
Kentucky’s Shaedon Sharpe is tied with Ivey at +10000 despite missing the 2021-22 college basketball season. He’s the biggest mystery in the draft but his sky-high potential could mean that he gets picked in the top five.
Here are the odds for the top pick in Thursday’s draft.
2022 NBA draft top pick odds
Jabari Smith, Auburn (-140)
Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga (+220)
Paolo Banchero, Duke (+225)
Jaden Ivey, Purdue (+10000)
Shaedon Sharpe, Kentucky (+10000)
AJ Griffin, Duke (+25000)
Keegan Murray, Iowa (+25000)
Johnny Davis, Wisconsin (+25000)
Jalen Duren, Memphis (+25000)
Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona (+25000)
Ochai Agbaji, Kansas (+25000)
TyTy Washington, Kentucky (+25000)