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If you’ve been watching the Warriors-Mavericks series, you’ve probably noticed that Dallas is getting a lot of open looks from beyond the arc. What you may not know is that 86 of the Mavs’ 93 attempts from three-point range have either been open (closest defender is 4-6 feet away from the shooter) or wide open (closest defender is 6+ feet away from the shooter).
Tonight we’re going to bet on Dallas to knock down those open treys at home, where they’re a 2.5-point favorite on BetMGM. Here are the trio of player props I like for Game 3:
Reggie Bullock over 2.5 three-pointers made (-135)
As the Warriors key in defensively on Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson, Bullock has benefited the most, getting a team-high 20 open and wide open looks from downtown in the first two games of the series. He drained nine of those and now returns home where he’s an even better three-point shooter.
Bullock has hit this number in his last four games against the Warriors and in five of his six home playoff games this year.
Dorian Finney-Smith over 2.5 three-pointers made (+115)
Finney-Smith has knocked down four of his six wide open threes against Golden State in this series and, like Bullock, is an even better long-distance shooter within the confines of the American Airlines Center. He’s knocked down 41.5% of his treys in his playoff career and is shooting exactly 50% from three-point land versus the Warriors this season.
The Mavs forward has gone over this number in four of his six home games in the 2022 playoffs. I’m not going too hard on this prop, though, as Finney-Smith has shot only 15 threes over his last four contests.
Jalen Brunson over 3.5 assists (+110)
Out of all players averaging at least 13 minutes per game in the 2022 NBA playoffs, Brunson ranks 11th in usage rate (29.3%). That’s a higher rate than Devin Booker and Trae Young and just behind Brandon Ingram, Jimmy Butler, and Jayson Tatum.
Brunson’s offensive game is all about driving towards the rim for layups or mid-range shots when they’re available and kicking it out when they’re not. Golden State has been packing the paint against the Mavs, making those shot attempts more difficult for both Brunson and Doncic, which has led to all those open and wide open three-point looks for Dallas.
If the Mavs hit their open threes tonight, Brunson should clear this prop without much of a sweat. He’s gone over this number in five of his six home playoff games this year and in all six matchups against the Warriors this season.
Stats provided by Basketball Reference, teamrankings.com, StatMuse, and nba.com.