NFL betting: Impact of Derrick Henry and Von Miller news

·5 min read

There's never a dull moment in the NFL. Monday morning has seen major news that has shifted the landscape for two potential Super Bowl contenders. The Titans will be without star running back Derrick Henry for 6-10 weeks after he suffered a foot injury in Tennessee's 34-31 win over Indianapolis on Sunday. While we were still processing that news, we also learned the Los Angeles Rams traded for Von Miller, one of the most feared pass rushers in the sport. 

Coincidentally enough, these two teams play each other in Week 9. What has this news done to the line for Sunday's big game? And what kind of impact has it had on the betting landscape as a whole? 

Sunday's line already on the move

When the betting market for Week 9 opened, the Tennessee Titans were installed as 6-point road underdogs in Los Angeles against the Rams. Early indications were that the Titans would be a popular underdog bet and that the line could come down as the week progressed. 

However, after the Titans announced that Henry would need foot surgery, we saw the Rams move to 7-point favorites. Henry is a pivotal part of the Titans' offense and the adjustment was necessary. Some might argue that Henry might be worth even more than a point to the spread. 

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - OCTOBER 24:  Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans walks off the field after a game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Nissan Stadium on October 24, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee.  The Titans defeated the Chiefs 27-3.  (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
Derrick Henry will miss 6-10 weeks because of foot surgery. (Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Currently, the Rams are 7.5-point favorites. The Von Miller trade might have had some impact on the line as well, as he's expected to make his Rams debut this upcoming weekend. 

Interestingly enough, the total opened at 54-points and has remained there. One could reasonably expect that the Titans losing their best offensive weapon and the Rams adding a game-changer on defense could have caused the total to drop, but that is yet to happen. 

Titans' outlook has changed

It was an amazing three weeks to be a Tennessee Titans fan. The Titans defeated the Buffalo Bills in Week 6 in a prime-time spot to announce their arrival as a legitimate contender in the AFC. They followed up that win by blowing out the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7. In Week 8, they came up with a come-from-behind overtime win over the Indianapolis Colts. 

After the injury news broke, the Titans' Super Bowl odds went from +1400 to the current number of +1600. They're also now +650 to win the AFC after sitting at +600 earlier in the day. Their odds to win the AFC South went from -3333 to currently sitting at -1667.

"Losing Derrick Henry is a significant blow to the Titans, as their offense is centered around the star running back. We've moved Tennessee from +1400 to +1600 to win the Super Bowl. The Titans are still -1667 favorites to win the AFC South," said BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini. 

This news is far from good, but it's also far from the end for the Titans. With the estimated 6-10 week recovery period for Henry, he might be done as a useful asset for your fantasy team, but he still has the potential to come back and make an impact for the Titans late in the season and in the playoffs.

Speaking of playoffs, the Titans are almost certain to qualify for them even without Henry. After yesterday's win over the Colts, the Titans have a three-game advantage over second place in the AFC South and now hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. For all intents and purposes, it's a four-game lead for the Titans. 

Bad beat on Henry season long props

If you backed Derrick Henry in the season-long prop market at BetMGM, I'm sorry. Henry was well on his way to crushing all of the preseason markets. 

Henry's over/under for rushing yards on the season was set at 1,525.5 yards. Henry was already at 937 yards and he was on pace for 1,992 yards over a 17-game season. 

Henry's preseason touchdown total was set at over/under 13.5 touchdowns. With 10 touchdowns in eight games to begin the season, Henry was on pace to score 21 touchdowns this year. 

Henry was also +500 to lead the league in rushing touchdowns and +350 to lead the league in rushing yards. He had a two-touchdown advantage over Cardinals running back James Conner, who currently sits in second place on the leaderboard. Henry had a 353-yard advantage over the Browns' Nick Chubb, who currently has the second-most rushing yards. 

Injuries are an unfortunate reality when playing these season-long props, but it still stings when your bets go down in flames. 

Rams get boost in Super Bowl odds

Prior to Week 8, the Los Angeles Rams sat at +800 to win the Super Bowl. After dominating the Houston Texans (though Houston got a disgusting back-door cover) and trading for Miller, the Rams' odds are currently sitting at +700 to win the Super Bowl. These are the third-best odds in the league behind the Bills at +500 and Buccaneers at +600.

Von Miller joins a defense with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey to go along with an offense led by Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Darrell Henderson. With Sean McVay calling the plays, the Rams are loaded across the board and have as good of a chance as anyone to win it all. 

Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting