NFL betting: Props we like for Chargers-Raiders on Monday

·5 min read

I'm grateful for "Monday Night Football." It gives us an extra day of football and something to look forward to on what is the most depressing day of the week for many. The Los Angeles Chargers are 3-point home favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders this week. The standalone aspect of prime-time games also allows us the opportunity to further dive into prop markets. Let's take a look at some our favorite props for this contest, courtesy of BetMGM.

Justin Herbert

Pete: Justin Herbert has taken the league by storm in his first year-plus as the starting quarterback of the Chargers. Not many believed in the prospect coming out of college (shoutout to Twitter draft expert Matthew Ganesh who did), but he's proven us all wrong. 

Herbert eclipsed 300 passing yards in eight of his 15 starts during his rookie year, and he's continued that trend in 2021 by going over 300 yards in two of his first three games. 

Las Vegas currently ranks around league average in terms of passing yards allowed and opposing quarterback completion percentage. When you consider the first three quarterbacks they faced were Lamar Jackson, Ben Roethlisberger and Jacoby Brissett, average no longer seems like anything to hang your hat on. 

This will be the Raiders' first real challenge when it comes to their secondary and I expect Herbert to be able to move the ball. The second year pro out of Oregon is no stranger to 300-yard games. He threw for at least 314 yards in both starts against the Raiders last season. I like him to go over 301.5 passing yards on Monday night. 

Bryan Edwards

Pete: It was a lost rookie season for Bryan Edwards due to injury and lack of playing time, but it appears his sophomore season will not be a repeat of that. 

Edwards is often overlooked due to Darren Waller, Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow. However, the second year wide receiver out of South Carolina has already made some big plays for the Raiders offense. It seems like Derek Carr trusts him in key moments with many of his catches coming in overtime. 

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - SEPTEMBER 26: Bryan Edwards #89 of the Las Vegas Raiders reacts during overtime as Jevon Holland #8 of the Miami Dolphins looks on at Allegiant Stadium on September 26, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)
Bryan Edwards of the Las Vegas Raiders celebrates a big catch against the Miami Dolphins in Week 3. (Chris Unger/Getty Images)

Edwards has received 13 targets through three games, which isn't a huge number. He has only 10 receptions. However, Edwards has gotten at least three catches in every game this season and I expect his role to continue to grow as Carr and Jon Gruden get even more comfortable with the rookie wideout. 

Edward's over/under for receptions on Monday night is 2.5 receptions. He's gone over that number in every game so far and I like him to go over again in prime time. 

Darren Waller

Pete: Darren Waller is the obvious focal point of the Raiders offense as he's seen 33 targets over three games. Seven of these targets for Waller have come in the red zone. Despite that, Waller has just one touchdown on the season, which came in Week 1 against Baltimore. 

Waller had nine receiving touchdowns last year and did not go three straight games without scoring all season. In fact, he had just one two-game scoreless drought through 16 games. 

The Chargers have been susceptible to the tight end this season. They allowed Logan Thomas to score in Week 1. They allowed the Cowboys' duo of Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin to combine for 25% of Dak Prescott's production in Week 2. In Week 3, Travis Kelce posted over 100 yards and backup tight end Jody Fortson found the end zone. 

I like Waller to score a touchdown at anytime at +140 on Monday night. 

Justin Herbert + Derek Carr both to record 250+ passing yards

Greg: This prop is juiced at -155 but both quarterbacks rank in the top 10 in passing yards and each of their teams are throwing the ball on more than 62.6% of plays and are in the top six in neutral passing rate. Carr has averaged over 400 yards per game against three of the better secondaries in the league and Herbert has comfortably cleared this prop in all three of his contests, averaging 318.7 passing yards.

If you think tonight’s matchup is going to be an AFC Wild West shootout, a good value bet would be Justin Herbert and Derek Carr both to record 40+ passing attempts, which pays +550 on BetMGM. Each QB has hit this mark in two of their three games this season.

Donald Parham Jr. 

Greg: This prop bet is not for the faint of heart but it is one of the most enjoyable sweats you could have in this game. I like Donald Parham to go over 6.5 receiving yards. The Chargers tight end stands at 6-foot-8 and is an athletic freak. Parham hasn’t been targeted much this year behind starter Jared Cook, but he has played on nearly 50% of offensive snaps and recorded a 19-yard reception against the Chiefs a week after having a 36-yard touchdown catch nullified by a dubious holding call in a 20-17 loss to the Cowboys. For anyone who’s already on the Chargers or Herbert tonight, a small wager on this player prop could be a fun addition, like a sidecar or pineapple on pizza.

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