The NFC isn't quite as deep as the AFC this season.
If you want the conference loaded with Super Bowl contenders, it's the AFC. But there are still some quality teams in the NFC, and definitely some betting opportunities when it comes to season win totals. Let's break down the best NFC season win total bets at BetMGM with Yahoo Sports' Scott Pianowski and Frank Schwab (we already delved into the AFC win totals).
What's your best season win total bet in the NFC?
FS: I'm debating two of them for my top pick. I think I know which one you're taking, so I'll go with the San Francisco 49ers over 10.5 wins. Around the quarterback I like everything. Great coach, fantastic running game, good skill-position talent and a top-10 defense. And I think once Trey Lance gets the starting job, the offense will hit a pretty fun level. The division worries me because there are no easy wins, and I worry about the team wasting too much time on Jimmy Garoppolo, but I'm still investing.
SP: While the Niners do have a tricky in-division schedule (this is my favorite division in football, the NFC West), the outside-of-division schedule is a cupcake. It's almost as if the league let coach Kyle Shanahan pick his opponents. I just wish I had a stab at this number when it was lower, but I'll stay in line at 10.5. This could easily be a Super Bowl team.
The Washington Football Team at 8.5 screams over to me. Love the head coach and the culture change. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a YOLO quarterback with some fleas, but he's peak Joe Thiesmann compared to what this team used last year. The offense is loaded with skill talent still on the escalator, and Chase Young looks like a DPOY case waiting to happen. I don't know if the better value is WFT for the division or WFT over the win total, but I'll happily write out both tickets.
FS: Yep, I knew WFT was your pick. And I'm totally with you. The defense could be the best in football, the offense should be light years better and Ron Rivera is a coach I trust. We're both on the over.
Is there an under for an NFC team you like?
FS: There are a few. Under 10.5 (-150 odds) on the Los Angeles Rams is one. I know everyone is excited for the Matthew Stafford addition, but I'm not totally sold. Losing Cam Akers was an underrated blow. But my best under play in the NFC is the Dallas Cowboys. The total of 9.5 seems inflated due to a star-filled offense and it being the Cowboys. They weren't good last season even with Dak Prescott, the defense still has holes and I don't know that Mike McCarthy is the answer there. I wouldn't want to bet Dallas to win 10 games.
SP: I'll fade a popular, public team too. Give me New Orleans under 9. Like Bill Belichick in 2020, Sean Payton doesn't have the full roster he wants. It's a transition season where being competitive will have to serve as a win. I only lose if they get to double-digit wins; good luck with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. But the pick goes deeper than that; the opening-day roster will be missing all sorts of key personnel. The NFL is a coaching league, but you need players, man.
FS: I agree on the Saints. I can't get them to 10 wins with Jameis Winston and no Michael Thomas, though fading Sean Payton worries me a bit.
Any other win totals stand out?
FS: Give me Falcons under 7.5 (why is this team much better than last season?) and Cardinals under 8.5 (I don't trust Kliff Kingsbury to be more than what he has been for two seasons). And one more over: Seattle over 9.5 at -160 odds. No matter how much I disagree with Seattle's methods, Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson always find their way to double-digit wins.
SP: I will definitely backline you on Arizona under. Kingsbury still seems over his head, especially on game theory and field-equity moves. Kyler Murray still makes plenty of highlight plays, but I want more sustained offensive plays. Home runs are nice when they hit; this offense doesn't have enough octane, enough OBP. And again, that circles back to the coach.