Week 11 of the NFL season gets underway on Thursday night with what is a rare rather appealing matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers. Green Bay sits at 4-6 and needs a home win to keep any realistic hopes for the playoffs alive. Tennessee has been surpassing oddsmakers' expectations all season long. What's the betting market and betting public think of tonight's game?
Spread on the move as bettors like Packers
The Green Bay Packers opened as a 2.5-point home favorite over the Tennessee Titans when betting lines first opened. Quickly, the Packers became a three point favorite where the line sat until Thursday morning. However, with kickoff approaching, the line is once again on the move.
Currently at BetMGM, Green Bay is up to a 3.5-point favorite over the Titans. That's a key line move through a key number, especially with the total sitting at a low 41-points.
As of Thursday morning, 54% of bets and 60% of the money was on the Packers to cover the spread. Additionally, 63% of the money was on the Packers to win outright on the moneyline at -175.
The Packers snapped a five game losing streak on Sunday with a come-from-behind overtime win against the Dallas Cowboys. The offense finally showed flashes of putting it together as they scored 31 points against a solid defense. Green Bay sits at just 4-6 on the season and if they want to make a serious push for a playoff spot, it starts now.
Obviously, the short week and being at home makes this a good spot for the Packers. However, this is a team that has failed to meet expectations for basically the entire season.
The opposite is true about the Tennessee Titans, who have covered the spread in seven straight games. In the Mike Vrabel era, the Titans are 23-14 against the spread as a betting underdog. When the Titans are underdogs of three points are more, they have a 22-9 record against the spread under Vrabel.
Bettors expect big night from Derrick Henry
While the betting market expects the Packers to win the game and cover the spread, they still expect Titans' running back Derrick Henry to have a big night.
Henry's rushing prop opened at 98.5 yards. Currently, his over/under for rushing yards is up all the way to 105.5 yards. At BetMGM, 95% of the bets are on the over.
The Packers' defense is not good against the run, as they rank 30th in rush defense DVOA. They're giving up nearly 141 yards per game on the ground. Green Bay is allowing 4.8 yards per carry, which is the fifth worst mark in the NFL. Henry was shutdown by the Denver Broncos last weekend, but he eclipsed 100 yards in each of his five games before then.
The two most popular prop bets for the game at BetMGM are Derrick Henry to score the first touchdown at +400 and Henry to score at anytime at -200.