NFL betting: Three props for Week 1

·4 min read

If you're anything like me, you're still recovering from fantasy football draft season. Hundreds of dollars invested and many, many hours of research later, we'd like to think that we have a pretty good idea of what to expect from most offensive players across the league. 

With player prop betting, you can take your fantasy football knowledge into the sports betting world. As an avid fantasy player, player props are potentially my favorite market. Below are my three favorite player props at BetMGM for Week 1.

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards

Over/Under: 71.5 yards

Nick Chubb is so good. NFL fans across the league realize that, but I still don't think they realize how good he is. Chubb eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards last season despite missing four and a half games with an injury. In 2019, he had nearly 1,500 rushing yards. 

During the 2020 regular season, Chubb played in 11 complete games. He went under 72 yards just three times. In 2019, Chubb went over 72 yards in 11 of his 16 games. 

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 17: Running back Nick Chubb #24 of the Cleveland Browns is tackled by defensive end Michael Danna #51 of the Kansas City Chiefs during the third quarter of the AFC Divisional Playoff game  at Arrowhead Stadium on January 17, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
Running back Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns runs the ball during a playoff game against the Kansas City Chiefs. (David Eulitt/Getty Images)

In the 2020 divisional round playoff game against the Chiefs, Chubb posted "just" 69 yards. Game script was not in his favor there, as the Browns trailed for most of the game. Despite that, he came just three yards short of this line. The Browns defense is much improved this season, so we should expect to see a more neutral game script which should favor Chubb. 

Last season, the Chiefs ranked 31st in terms of rush defensive DVOA. Kansas City will also be without linebacker Willie Gay due to a toe injury, which only makes things harder. I expect Chubb to go over this total as the Browns look to establish their identity in Week 1. 

Aaron Jones Receiving Yards

Over/Under: 18.5 yards

We continue looking at the premier running backs in the league with Green Bay's Aaron Jones. Jones posted over 1,100 yards last season, but we're not looking at his rushing prowess here. Instead, we take a look at Jones' prospects as a receiving option. 

Jones has been a solid receiving back over the past few seasons, posting 47 receptions for 355 yards last season in 14 games. He posted an average of 25.4 receiving yards per game. Despite that, he posted only a 7-7 record in terms of going over 18.5 receiving yards

However, there's reason to believe his role as a receiver should grow this season. Jamaal Williams has left the Packers, joining the Detroit Lions. Last season, Williams posted 31 receptions for 236 yards as he and Jones basically split the receiving work. 

With Williams out of the picture, A.J. Dillon now becomes the backup running back in Green Bay. Dillon is an interesting option as a runner, but not so much as a receiver. In his rookie season, Dillon caught just two passes. In three seasons with Boston College, Dillon caught just 21 passes. 

18.5 yards was a tossup for Jones last season. This year, his role in the receiving game should grow. I think this is a good opportunity to buy at the floor, so I'd go over 18.5 receiving yards for Jones. 

Jakobi Meyers Receptions

Over/Under: 3.5 receptions

The New England Patriots spent big money in free agency on Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. Despite this, I'm still convinced Jakobi Meyers is the number one receiving option in this offense. 

Meyers was a non-factor for New England's first five games last season, but he came on in a big way. Over the last 11 games, Meyers received 80 targets. He turned those 80 targets into 58 receptions and 722 yards. Meyers posted at least four receptions in 9 of those 11 games.

New England had an ugly offense last season, especially when it came to the passing attack. Cam Newton is gone though, and the prospects of the aerial attack improve with Mac Jones under center. I don't think I'm expecting too much out of the rookie quarterback as four receptions is very achievable for his number one receiver. 

Meyers is still under the radar for many, but he's shown what he's capable of. I'd go over 3.5 receptions for Meyers on Sunday. 

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