NFL player props: Derrick Henry will be a short king versus the Buffalo Bills

·3 min read

Like an Italian grandmother, the NFL is giving us a second serving of Monday Night Football this evening before we're even done with our initial plate. Seventy-five minutes after the Titans and Bills kick off on ESPN, the Vikings and Eagles will begin battle on ABC. Here are three player props from BetMGM that are hitting my eye like a big pizza pie tonight:

Alexander Mattison over 16.5 rushing yards (-120)

Mattison averaged 4.3 carries per game last season when Dalvin Cook was active. Fast-forward past Mike Zimmer getting the axe and silly offseason speculation that someone other than Mattison may be Minnesota's RB2, all the way to the first game of 2022, where Mattison handled eight carries for 36 yards as Cook's clear backup in Kevin O'Connell's new offense. It's just a one-game sample size, but giving Mattison a few more totes per contest would be a smart move to help mitigate Cook's elevated risk of re-injuring his shoulder.

Philadelphia's defense ranked last in tackling in Week 1 as they surrendered 181 rushing yards to the Lions. Mattison has hit this prop in each of his 24 career games where he recorded at least five carries.

Treylon Burks over 26.5 receiving yards (-115)

The NFL player Burks was compared to the most during the 2022 draft season was A.J. Brown. Tennessee must have agreed, as they traded Brown to Philly and selected Burks to replace him. The rookie receiver out of Arkansas spent much of training camp dealing with asthma, but he's performed well in games for a Titans offense that could use a breath of fresh air. Burks had a 15.2% target share in Tennessee's season opener, catching three of his five targets for 55 yards. His YAC ability could cash this prop on a single toss from Ryan Tannehill and we could also see some garbage time production in a matchup where the Titans are 10-point underdogs.

Derrick Henry under 87.5 rushing yards (-110)

At some point, Henry is going to fall off a cliff à la Wile E. Coyote. Maybe it's dumb to bet against him, but he has nearly 1,000 touches since 2019 and has looked a shade slower in the two games he's played after breaking a bone in his foot last year. Much of Henry's brilliance as a runner has been that he batters defenses for three quarters, then rips off long runs in the final frame when he's sapped their energy like a 247-pound vampire. In Buffalo's Week 1 win over the Rams, linebacker Matt Milano was the only front seven player for the Bills who logged more than 69% of snaps. That decision to rotate defenders helped Buffalo dominate up front throughout the night, sacking Matthew Stafford seven times and holding the Rams to 52 rushing yards.

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry may not be the dominant player he once was, which invites a betting opportunity. (Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)
Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry may not be the dominant player he once was, which invites a betting opportunity. (Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)

Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, PFF, and StatMuse.