Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay – Will the Academy Take a Bite Out of ‘Glass Onion?’

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Dec. 2, 2022

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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

WOMEN TALKING, from left: Judith Ivey, Claire Foy, 2022. ph: Michael Gibson /© Orion Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection
WOMEN TALKING, from left: Judith Ivey, Claire Foy, 2022. ph: Michael Gibson /© Orion Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: (to be updated)

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

Find the SAG Awards predictions for film and Golden Globe predictions in all of the film categories on their respective pages.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

(from left) Young Zelda Perkins (Molly Windsor) and young Rowena Chiu (Ashley Chiu) in She Said, directed by Maria Schrader.
(from left) Young Zelda Perkins (Molly Windsor) and young Rowena Chiu (Ashley Chiu) in She Said, directed by Maria Schrader.

And The Predicted Nominees Are:

Rank

Film

Writer(s) and source material

Distributor

1

“Women Talking”

Sarah Polley (based on the novel by Miriam Toews)

MGM/United Artists Releasing

A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.

2

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

Rian Johnson (based on characters written by Johnson)

Netflix

Famed Southern detective Benoit Blanc travels to Greece for his latest case.

3

“Living”

Kazuo Ishiguro (based on “Ikiru” by Akira Kurosawa, Shinobu Hashimoto and Hideo Oguni)

Sony Pictures Classics

An English-language adaptation of the script of “Ikiru” (1952), set in London in the 1950s.

4

“Top Gun: Maverick”

Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie (based on characters created by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.)

Paramount Pictures

After more than thirty years of service as one of the Navy’s top aviators, Pete Mitchell is where he belongs, pushing the envelope as a courageous test pilot and dodging the advancement in rank that would ground him.

5

“She Said”

Rebecca Lenkiewicz (based on the book by Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey, and the New York Times investigation by Kantor, Twohey and Rebecca Corbett)

Universal Pictures

New York Times reporters Megan Twohey and Jodi Kantor break one of the most important stories in a generation — a story that helped launch the #MeToo movement and shattered decades of silence around the subject of sexual assault in Hollywood.

Next in Line

6

“The Whale”

Samuel D. Hunter (based on the play by Hunter)

A24

A reclusive English teacher suffering from severe obesity attempts to reconnect with his estranged teenage daughter for one last chance at redemption.

7

“Bones & All”

David Kajganich (based on the novel by Camille DeAngelis)

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Maren, a young woman, learns how to survive on the margins of society.

8

“The Good Nurse”

Krysty Wilson-Cairns (based on the book by Charles Graeber)

Netflix

An infamous caregiver is implicated in the deaths of hundreds of hospital patients.

9

“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”

Dean Fleischer-Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Nick Paley (based on the short videos)

A24

Feature adaptation of the animated short film interviewing a mollusk named Marcel.

10

“White Noise”

Noah Baumbach (based on the novel by Don DeLillo)

Netflix

Dramatizes a contemporary American family’s attempts to deal with the mundane conflicts of everyday life while grappling with the universal mysteries of love, death, and the possibility of happiness in an uncertain world.

Other Top-Tier Contenders

11

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

James Cameron, Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silverman (based on characters created by Cameron)

20th Century Studios

12

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”

Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robbins, Gris Grimly, Patrick Hale (based on the characters and novel by Carlo Collodi)

Netflix

13

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell (based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque)

Netflix

14

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole (based on the comics by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby)

Marvel Studios

15

“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”

David Magee (based on the novel by D.H. Lawrence)

Netflix

16

“Devotion”

Jake Crane, Jonathan A.H. Stewart (based on the book by Adam Makos)

Sony Pictures

17

“The Wonder”

Alice Birch, Sebastián Lelio (based on the novel by Emma Donoghue)

Netflix

18

“A Man Called Otto”

David Magee (based on the novel by Fredrik Backman)

Sony Pictures

19

“The Son”

Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play by Florian Zeller)

Sony Pictures Classics

20

“Catherine Called Birdy”

Lena Dunham (based on the novel by Karen Cushman)

Amazon Studios

Also In Contention

21

“After Yang”

Kogonada (based on the short story “Saying Goodbye to Yang” from the book “Children of the New World” by Alexander Weinstein)

A24

22

“Pearl”

Ti West, Mia Goth (based on characters created by West)

A24

23

“The Silent Twins”

Andrea Seigel (based on the book by Marjorie Wallace)

Focus Features

24

“My Policeman”

Ron Nyswaner (based on the novel by Bethan Roberts)

Amazon Studios

25

“Spoiler Alert”

David Marshall Grant, Dan Savage (based on the book by Michael Ausiello)

Focus Features

All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)

“A Man Called Otto”

David Magee (based on the novel by Fredrik Backman)

Sony Pictures

“After Yang”

Kogonada (based on the short story “Saying Goodbye to Yang” by Alexander Weinstein)

A24

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell (based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque)

Netflix

“All the Old Knives”

Olen Steinhauer (based on the book by Steinhauer)

Amazon Studios

“Allelujah”

Heidi Thomas (based on the play by Alan Bennett)

No U.S. Distribution

“Ambulance”

Chris Fedak (based on the film “Ambulancen” by Laurits Munch-Petersen and Lara Andreas Pedersen)

Universal Pictures

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

James Cameron, Josh Friedman (based on characters created by Cameron)

20th Century Studios

“Black Adam”

Adam Sztykiel, Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani (based on the characters from DC Comics)

Warner Bros

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole (based on the comics by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby)

Marvel Studios

“Blonde”

Andrew Dominik (based on the novel by Joyce Carol Oates)

Netflix

“Bones & All”

David Kajganich (based on the novel by Camille DeAngelis)

MGM/United Artists Releasing

“Both Sides of the Blade”

Christine Angot, Claire Denis (based on the novel by Christine Angot)

IFC Films

“Breaking”

Abi Damaris Corbin, Kwame Kwei-Armah (based on the article “They Didn’t Have to Kill Him” by Aaron Gell)

Bleecker Street

“Brian and Charles”

David Earl, Chris Hayward (based on the novel by Jim Archer)

Focus Features

“Brother”

Clement Virgo (based on the novel by David Chariaridy)

No U.S. Distribution

“Butcher’s Crossing”

Gabe Polsky, Liam Satre-Meloy (based on the novel by John Williams)

Saban Films

“Catherine Called Birdy”

Lena Dunham (based on the novel by Karen Cushman)

Amazon Studios

“DC League of Superpets”

Jared Stern, John Whittington

Warner Bros.

“Devotion”

Jake Crane, Jonathan Stewart (based on the book by Adam Makos)

Sony Pictures

“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”

Michael Waldron (based on the comics by Stan Lee and Steve Ditko)

Marvel Studios

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Julian Fellowes (based on the television series created by Fellowes)

Focus Features

“Emergency”

K.D. Dávila

Amazon Studios

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

Rian Johnson (based on characters written by Johnson)

Netflix

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”

Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robbins, Gris Grimly, Patrick Hale (based on the characters and novel by Carlo Collodi)

Netflix

“Happening”

Marcia Romano, Audrey Diwan (based on the novel by Annie Ernaux)

IFC Films

“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”

David Magee (based on the novel by D.H. Lawrence)

Netflix

“Lightyear”

Angus MacLane, Matthew Aldrich, Jason Headley (based on the characters of “Toy Story”)

Pixar

“Living”

Kazuo Ishiguro (based on “Ikiru” by Akira Kurosawa, Shinobu Hashimoto and Hideo Oguni)

Sony Pictures Classics

“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”

Will Davies (based on the book by Bernard Waber)

Sony Pictures

“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”

Dean Fleischer-Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Nick Paley (based on the short videos)

A24

“Matilda”

Dennis Kelly (based on the book by Roald Dahl and musical book by Kelly)

Netflix

“Minions: The Rise of Gru”

Matthew Fogel, Brian Lynch (based on characters created the “Despicable Me” franchise)

Universal Pictures

“Montana Story”

Mike Spreter, Scott McGehee, David Siegel

Bleecker Street

“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”

Carroll Cartwright, Anthony Fabian, Keith Thompson, Olivia Hetreed (based on the novel by Paul Gallico)

Focus Features

“Mr. Malcolm’s List”

Suzanne Allain (based on the novel by Allain)

Bleecker Street

“My Father’s Dragon”

Meg LeFauve (based on the book by Ruth Stiles Gannett)

Netflix

“My Policeman”

Ron Nyswaner (based on the novel by Bethan Roberts)

Amazon Studios

“Persuasion”

Ron Bass, Alice Victoria Winslow (based on the novel by Jane Austen)

Netflix

“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”

Paul Fisher, Tommy Swerdlow, Tom Wheeler (based on characters from “Shrek” and the fairytale by Giovanni Francesco)

DreamWorks Animation

“Scream”

James Vanderbilt, Guy Busick (based on characters created by Wes Craven)

Paramount Pictures

“She Said”

Rebecca Lenkiewicz (based on the book by Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey)

Universal Pictures

“Spoiler Alert”

David Marshall Grant, Dan Savage (based on the book by Michael Ausiello)

Focus Features

“Stars at Noon”

Claire Denis, Andrew Litvack, Léa Mysius (based on the novel by Denis Johnson)

A24

“Terrifier 2”

Damien Leone (based on characters created by Leone)

Cinedigm

“The Bad Guys”

Etan Cohen (based on “The Bad Guys” book series by Aaron Blabey)

Universal Pictures

“The Batman”

Matt Reeves, Peter Craig, (based on the characters created by Bob Kane and Bill Finger)

Warner Bros.

“The Bob’s Burgers Movie”

To be added

20th Century Studios

“The Good House”

Thomas Bezucha, Maya Forbes, Wallace Wolodarsky (based on the novel by Ann Leary)

Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions

“The Good Nurse”

Krysty Wilson-Cairns (based on the book by Charles Graeber)

Netflix

“The Pale Blue Eye”

Scott Cooper (based on the novel by Louis Bayard)

Netflix

“The Phantom of the Open”

Simon Farnaby (based on the book by Scott Murray)

Sony Pictures Classics

“The Silent Twins”

Andrea Seigel (based on the book by Marjorie Wallace)

Focus Features

“The Son”

Christopher Hampton (based on the play by Florian Zeller)

Sony Pictures Classics

“The Whale”

Samuel D. Hunter (based on the play by Hunter)

A24

“The Wonder”

Alice Birch, Sebastián Lelio (based on the novel by Emma Donoghue)

Netflix

“Thor: Love and Thunder”

Taika Waititi, Jennifer Kaytin Robinson (based on the comics by Stan Lee, Jason Aaron)

Marvel Studios

“Three Thousand Years of Longing”

George Miller, August Gore (based on “The Djinn in the Nightingale’s Eye” by A.S. Byatt)

MGM/United Artists Releasing

“Top Gun: Maverick”

Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie (based on characters created by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.)

Paramount Pictures

“Wendell & Wild”

Henry Selick, Jordan Peele (based on the book by Selick and Clay McLeod Chapman)

Netflix

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Lucy Alibar (based on the novel by Delia Owens)

Sony Pictures

“White Noise”

Noah Baumbach (based on the novel by Don DeLillo)

Netflix

“Women Talking”

Sarah Polley (based on the novel by Miriam Toews)

MGM/United Artists Releasing

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.

2022 category winner: “CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Siân Heder

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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