Oscars Predictions: Best Picture – ‘Nightmare Alley’ and ‘West Side Story’ Hope to Shake Up the Race

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goiVariety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST PICTURE

UPDATED: Nov 26, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: Next week sees the official kickoff for awards ceremonies as the Gotham Awards get handed out on Monday, Nov. 29 in New York City, along with the National Board of Review and New York Film Critics Circle announcing at the end of the week. In the midst of it all, Guillermo del Toro’s “Nightmare Alley” with Bradley Cooper and Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story” with Rachel Zegler will finally be unveiled before the eyes of critics.

Aaron Sorkin’s “Being the Ricardos” and Lin-Manuel Miranda’s “Tick, Tick … Boom!” are finding devoted fans while Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Licorice Pizza” and Adam McKay’s “Don’t Look Up” will be split with critics and voters, but will undoubtedly drum up passion.

Is there room for a surprising entry like Ridley Scott’s “The Last Duel,” even with “House of Gucci” becoming a financial success? Can Asghar Farhadi’s “A Hero” or Pedro Almodóvar’s “Parallel Mothers” find a road for international features in the top categories?

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022.

Awards Season Calendar (2021-2022)

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

NIGHTMARE ALLEY, from left: Cate Blanchett, Bradley Cooper, 2021. ph: Kerry Hayes / © Searchlight Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection - Credit: ©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection
NIGHTMARE ALLEY, from left: Cate Blanchett, Bradley Cooper, 2021. ph: Kerry Hayes / © Searchlight Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection - Credit: ©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection

©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

RANK

FILM

STUDIO

PRODUCERS

1

“Belfast”

Focus Features

Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik, Tamar Thomas

2

“King Richard”

Warner Bros

Tim White, Trevor White, Will Smith

3

“The Power of the Dog”

Netflix

Emile Sherman, Iain Canning, Roger Frappier, Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian

4

“Dune”

Warner Bros

Cale Boyter, Joe Caracciolo Jr, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve

5

“Being the Ricardos”

Amazon Studios

Todd Black, Jason Blumenthal, Steve Tisch

6

“Tick, Tick … Boom!”

Netflix

Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Julie Oh

7

“Licorice Pizza”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Paul Thomas Anderson, Sara Murphy, JoAnne Sellar, Daniel Lupi

8

“The Tragedy of Macbeth”

Apple Original Films/A24

Joel Coen, Robert Graf, Frances McDormand

9

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

Adam McKay, Kevin Messick, Scott Stuber, Betsy Koch, Todd Schulman

10

“West Side Story”

20th Century Studios

Kristie Macosko Krieger, Kevin McCollum, Steven Spielberg

NEXT IN LINE

11

“The Lost Daughter”

Netflix

Charlie Dorfman, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Osnat Handelsman-Keren, Talia Kleinhendler

12

“Nightmare Alley”

Searchlight Pictures

J. Miles Dale, Guillermo del Toro, Bradley Cooper

13

“CODA”

Apple Original Films

Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi, Patrick Wachsberger, Jerôme Seydoux

14

“C’mon C’mon”

A24

Chelsea Barnard, Lila Yacoub, Andrea Longacre-White

15

“A Hero”

Amazon Studios

Asghar Farhadi, Alexandre Mallet-Guy

16

“Parallel Mothers”

Sony Pictures Classics

Agustín Almodóvar, Pedro Almodóvar

17

“The Harder They Fall”

Netflix

Lawrence Bender, Jay-Z, James Lassiter, Jeymes Samuel

18

“House of Gucci”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Ridley Scott, Giannina Scott, Kevin J. Walsh, Mark Huffam

19

“Spencer”

Neon and Topic Studios

Maren Ade, Jonas Dornbach, Janine Jackowski, Juan de Dios Larraín, Pablo Larraín, Paul Webster

20

“The Last Duel”

20th Century Studios

Ridley Scott, Kevin J. Walsh, Jennifer Fox, Nicole Holofcener, Matt Damon, Ben Affleck

OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS

21

“Passing”

Netflix

Nina Yang Bongiovi, Rebecca Hall, Margot Hand, Forest Whitaker

22

“Flee”

Neon

Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen

23

“The Tender Bar”

Amazon Studios

George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Ted Hope

24

“Cyrano”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Guy Heeley

25

“Swan Song”

Apple Original Films

Mahershala Ali, Rebecca Bourke, Jonathan King, Jacob Perlin, Adam Shulman, Mimi Valdes

26

“The French Dispatch”

Searchlight Pictures

Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales

27

“Red Rocket”

A24

Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan, Alex Saks, Shih-Ching Tsou

28

“Stillwater”

Focus Features

Tom McCarthy, Jonathan King, Liza Chasin, Steve Golin

29

“Mothering Sunday”

Sony Pictures Classics

Elizabeth Karlsen, Stephen Woolley

30

“The Hand of God”

Netflix

Paolo Sorrentino, Lorenzo Mieli

ALSO IN CONTENTION

31

“The Matrix: Resurrections”

Warner Bros

James McTeigue, Lana Wachowski, Grant Hill

32

“In the Heights”

Warner Bros

Lin-Manuel Miranda, Quiara Alegría Hudes, Scott Sanders, Anthony Bregman, Mara Jacobs

33

“Mass”

Bleecker Street

Fran Kranz, Dylan Matlock, Casey Wilder Mott, J.P. Ouellette

34

“Shiva Baby”

Utopia

Kieran Altmann, Katie Schiller, Lizzie Shapiro

35

“A Journal for Jordan”

Sony Pictures

Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Michael B. Jordan, Jason Blumenthal, Steve Tisch

36

“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”

Searchlight Pictures

Jessica Chastain, Kelly Carmichael, Rachel Shane, Gigi Pritzker

37

“Jockey”

Sony Pictures Classics

Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Nancy Schafer

38

“No Time to Die”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Michael G. Wilson, Barbara Broccoli

39

“Titane”

Neon

Jean-Christophe Reymond

40

“Annette”

Amazon Studios

Charles Gillibert, Paul-Dominique Win Vacharasinthu, Adam Driver

UNRANKED LISTING

“12 Mighty Orphans”

Sony Pictures Classics

Houston Hill, Angelique De Luca, Michael De Luca, Brinton Bryan

“7 Prisoners”

Netflix

Ramin Bahrani, Fernando Meirelles

“A Chiara”

Neon

Jon Coplon, Ryan Zacarias, Paolo Carpignano

“A Quiet Place Part II”

Paramount Pictures

Michael Bay, Andrew Form, Brad Fuller, John Krasinski

“Ailey”

Neon

Jamila Wignot, Lauren DeFilippo

“American Underdog”

Lionsgate

Kevin Downes, Andrew Erwin, Jon Erwin

“Antlers”

Searchlight Pictures

Guillermo del Toro, David S. Goyer, J. Miles Dale

“Army of the Dead”

Netflix

Deborah Snyder, Wesley Coller, Zack Snyder

“Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn”

Magnolia Pictures

Ada Solomon

“Bergman Island”

IFC Films

Charles Gillibert, Erik Hemmendorff, Rodrigo Teixeira, Lisa Widén

“Black Widow”

Marvel Studios

Kevin Feige

“Blue Bayou”

Focus Features

Charles D. King, Kim Roth, Poppy Hanks, Justin Chon

“Bruised”

Netflix

Berry, Basil Iwanyk, Brad Feinstein, Guymon Casady, Linda Gottlieb, Erica Lee, Gillian G. Hormel, Paris Kassidokosta-Latsis,Terry Douglas

“Coming 2 America”

Amazon Studios

Kevin Misher, Eddie Murphy

“Compartment No. 6”

Sony Pictures Classics

Emilia Haukka, Jussi Rantamäki

“Cruella”

Walt Disney Pictures

Andrew Gunn, Marc Platt, Kristin Burr

“Cry Macho”

Warner Bros

Clint Eastwood, Albert S. Ruddy, Tim Moore, Jessica Meier

“Cusp”

Showtime

David Chase, Lawrence Konner, Nicole Lambert

“Dave Chappelle: This Time, This Place”

No U.S. Distribution

Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert

“Dream Horse”

Bleecker Street

Katherine Butler, Tracy O’Riordan

“Drive My Car”

Sideshow and Janus Films

To be added

“Encanto”

Walt Disney Pictures

Clark Spencer, Yvett Merino

“Encounter”

Amazon Studios

Dimitri Doganis, Piers Vellacott, Derrin Schlesinger

“Eternals”

Marvel Studios

Kevin Feige, Nate Moore

“Everybody’s Talking About Jamie”

Amazon Studios

Adam Ackland, Ed Clarke, Leah Clarke, Guy Heeley

“F9”

Universal Pictures

To be added

“Finch”

Apple Original Films

To be added

“Flag Day”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

To be added

“Free Guy”

20th Century Studios

Ryan Reynolds, Shawn Levy, Sarah Schechter, Greg Berlanti, Adam Kolbrenner

“Ghostbusters: Afterlife”

Sony Pictures

To be added

“India Sweets and Spices”

Bleecker Street

To be added

“Joe Bell”

Solstice Studios

To be added

“John and the Hole”

IFC Films

To be added

“Lamb”

A24

To be added

“Language Lessons”

Shout! Studios

Mel Eslyn

“Last Night in Soho”

Focus Features

Nira Park, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Edgar Wright

“Luca”

Pixar

Andrea Warren

“Mogul Mowgli”

Strand Releasing

To be added

“Nine Days”

Sony Pictures Classics

Jason Michael Berman, Mette-Marie Kongsved, Laura Tunstall, Datari Turner

“No Sudden Move”

HBO Max

To be added

“Old Henry”

Universal Pictures

To be added

“Old”

Shout! Factory

To be added

“Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre”

STXfilms

Ivan Atkinson, Bill Block, Steven Chasman, Jason Statham

“Petite Maman”

Neon

To be added

“Pig”

Neon

To be added

“Plan B”

Hulu

Ryan Bennett, Jeremy Garelick, Josh Heald, Dina Hillier, Jon Hurwitz, Mickey Liddell, Matt Lottman, Will Phelps, Hayden Schlossberg, Pete Shilaimon

“Raya and the Last Dragon”

Walt Disney Pictures

Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer

“Respect”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Harvey Mason Jr., Scott Bernstein, Jonathan Glickman, Stacey Sher

“Saint Maud”

A24

To be added

“Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”

Marvel Studios

Kevin Feige, Jonathan Schwartz

“Sing 2”

Illumination Animation / Universal Pictures

To be added

“Spider-Man: No Way Home”

Sony Pictures

To be added

“Spirit Untamed”

Dreamworks Animation

To be added

“Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”

Searchlight Pictures

David Dinerstein, Robert Fyvolent, Joseph Patel

“Swan Song”

Magnolia Pictures

To be added

“The Boss Baby: Family Business”

DreamWorks Animation/Universal Pictures

To be added

“The Card Counter”

Focus Features

Braxton Pope, Lauren Mann, David Wulf

“The Colour Room”

Sky Cinema

Thembisa Cochrane, Georgie Paget

“The Courier”

Lionsgate

To be added

“The Duke”

Sony Pictures Classics

To be added

“The Electrical Life of Louis Wain”

Amazon Studios

To be added

“The Green Knight”

A24

To be added

“The Guilty”

Netflix

To be added

“The Humans”

A24/Showtime

To be added

“The Killing of Two Lovers”

Neon

To be added

“The Many Saints of Newark”

Warner Bros

Basil Iwanyk, Brad Feinstein, Guymon Casady, Linda Gottlieb, Erica Lee

“The Mitchells vs. The Machines”

Netflix/Sony Pictures Animation

Kurt Albrecht, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller

“The Rescue”

National Geographic

To be added

“The Souvenir Part II”

A24

To be added

“The Sparks Brothers”

Focus Features

Casey Silver

“The Suicide Squad”

Warner Bros

To be added

“The Tomorrow War”

Amazon Studios

To be added

“The Velvet Underground”

Apple Original Films

Todd Haynes, Christine Vachon, Julie Goldman, Carolyn Hepburn, Christopher Clements, David Blackman

“The Worst Person in the World”

Neon

To be added

“Together Together”

Bleecker Street

To be added

“Together”

Bleecker Street

To be added

“Val”

Amazon Studios

To be added

“Vivo”

Netflix

To be added

“Werewolves Within”

IFC Films

To be added

“Zola”

A24

To be added

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood's most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists' representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022

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