Over/Under Week 17 - Trey Lance

Will the San Francisco QB finish over/under 259.5 total yards in Week 17?

Video Transcript

ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah. Seamless segue there. We're talking Trey Lance. This is a guy that I don't think we've even mentioned over the last two months. But Jimmy Garoppolo not expected to go today. That means the rookie is actually going to see some time. And we set a fairly modest number here at 259 and a 1/2 total yards, combined yards, passing and rushing for Trey Lance. And I am taking the over in this thing.

Let's remember, in his earlier start this season, his one start this season, he had 16 carries, which is a total that quarterbacks just don't reach. It's only happened six times or at least for six individual quarterbacks since the merger. He's got the full gang with him this week. He's got Kittle. He's got Aiyuk, whose name we now mention, all of us apparently. He's got Deebo. He's got Mitchell. He's got them all.

If you look at the opponent, it's Houston. They allow 4.7 yards per carry to opposing rushers. They give up 6.8% yards per pass attempt. The match-up is perfect Yes. Give me the over. Liz, do you agree?

LIZ LOZA: I definitely agree. I mean, you mentioned the match-up and how Houston is so vulnerable versus the run. Trey Lance has not been spectacular as a passer, right? In his one start under 52% completion percentage, but when you think about his legs, those 14 touchdowns in college. Man, you can't get away from 2019, right? And so I also think when we look at the match-up, the Texans have allowed the most rushing scores to opposing quarterbacks.

So I think he should get plenty of young-- plenty of run here, plus, all of his pass catchers are really good after the catch, which also bodes well for padding these stats. I will definitely take the over.

ANDY BEHRENS: Matt, I've seen your bold prediction later in the show. So there's no way you're taking the under here, right?

MATT HARMON: Well, correct. Yeah. No way I'm taking the under. I am going to go over as well. You guys mentioned it, I mean, the Texas State against a ground game, Trey Lance, they leaned into this heavily last time he started. I mean, that was all the way back in week 5, you know, they were 24th the neutral pass rate that week among all teams. Like, they were definitely leaning on Trey Lance's ability to run. I think they will do that again here.

But, Andy, I love that you bring up, like, this passing game looked a hell of a lot different back then, you know, no George Kittle. We got George Kittle back. Brandon Aiyuk is out of the doghouse now. That situation is over with. I mean, Tank kind of lives in the past every now and again, but we are living in the future here. And we're living in the current reality, which is this passing game could be a little more open up.

And of course, Trey Lance has reportedly been kind of decent in practice. And we know how much that matters for Kyle Shanahan. A lot, we've learned that this year.

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