A BACK-TO-BACK La Niña phenomenon is 70 to 80 percent expected to occur from the last quarter of 2021 up to the second quarter of 2022, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).
Engr. Al Quiblat of Pagasa-Mactan told SunStar Cebu that this worldwide phenomenon also happened in October 2020 to June 2021, in which Mindanao was the most affected.
He said Pagasa just issued a La Niña alert last week, and it was based on international data and climate models that were accumulated in the past three months.
Quiblat said above normal rainfall conditions will be experienced in the country, adding that La Niña also triggers more tropical cyclones.
"Mao man gud ni namugna ni nga forecast because there is a continuing cooling ng sea surface temperature sa easter ng Pacific Ocean, sige manag monitor, worldwide mana. So pag mobugnaw gani didto sa Eastern Pacific, atua Western man, moinit ang atuang kadagatan, so modaghan ang ulan. Mas init ang sa western, mas daghan ang maporma nga low pressure area nga posibleng mahimung bagyo," Quiblat said.
(That forecast was made as there is a continuing cooling of sea surface temperature in the eastern side of Pacific Ocean. The monitoring has been done worldwide. So when the sea surface temperature is cool in the Eastern Pacific, the sea surface will be warm in the western side, triggering rains and low pressure areas that may possible develop into cyclones.)
He added that based on their six-month forecast, Cebu Province will experience a near normal rainfall in October, with 81 to 100 percent of 200 millimeters of rain.
Beginning November, however, Cebu will experience above normal, or 120 percent above of rain.
Quiblat then urged the public to take precautionary measures beginning November until March 2022, saying flashfloods and landslides may possibly occur.
He said a provincial climate forum will be conducted on October 7 to inform the local government units (LGUs) in the Visayas, adding that farmers should be properly informed and be guided on the type of crops that can survive during La Niña.
He said back-to-back La Niña also occurred in 2016 to 2017, 2017 to 2018, 2010 to 2011 and 2011 to 2012.
Countries near the Pacific Ocean will experience La Niña and El Niño, Quiblat added. (MVE)