Nine Senate candidates are "likely guaranteed wins next week" as six fight over the last three slots, a new Social Weather Stations-BusinessWorld poll said Wednesday.
The Team PNoy dominated the results of the May 2-3 survey, with seven of its bets likely to bag seats, leaving only two "guaranteed wins" for the United Nationalist Alliance slate.
Reelectionist Senator Loren Legarda still sat on top of the polls with a voter preference rating of 57 percent, two-point dip from 59 percent in April.
This, even as Legarda, who has consistently led the race based on surveys, faces accusations that she misdeclared her statement of assets and liabilities.
Legarda was followed by Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, whose voter preference rating also dropped two points to 50 percent.
The 3rd and 4th spots were meanwhile shared by Senator Chiz Escudero, another Team PNoy bet, and Nancy Binay, who was the highest-ranked UNA candidate.
Escudero "appears to have shrugged off a public repudiation by the parents of his actress-girlfriend Heart Evangelista," the SWS-BW analysis said.
The reelectionist senator slipped to ranking only 5th in the April survey, after consistently landing in the top three until March.
Vice-President Jejomar Binay's daughter Nancy, for her part, climped up the rankings since she joined the Senate race despite being a "political neophyte," the analysis said.
Claiming the 5th spot was former Movie and Television Review and Classification Board Chairman Grace Poe-Llamanzares (Team PNoy), with 45 percent support from respondents.
Tied at 6th-7th were San Juan Rep. Joseph Victor "JV" Ejercito (UNA) and former Las Pinas Rep; Cynthia Villar (Team PNoy), whose voter preference rating were both pegged at 44 percent.
Reelectionist Aquilino Martin "Koko" Pimentel (Team PNoy) bagged the 8th spot with 43 percent support.
Claiming the 9th spot, the last "guaranteed seat", was President Benigno Aquino III's cousin Paolo Benigno "Bam" Aquino.
Results were based on a survey of 2,400 registered voters nationwide barely two weeks before the midterm polls.
Fighting over the last three spots in the so-called "Magic 12" meanwhile are three Team PNoy and three UNA bets.
Team PNoy candidates Aurora Rep. Juan Edgardo "Sonny" Angara and Senator Antonio "Sonny" Trillanes IV shared the 10th-11th spots with scores at 38 percent.
Ranked 12th was reelectionist Gregorio "Gringo" Honasan at 37 percent, followed by fellow UNA bet and Cagayan Rep. Juan Ponce "Jack" Enrile, Jr. with a score of 35 percent.
Coming in at 14th-15th were former senators Ramon "Jun" Magsaysay (Team PNoy) and Juan Miguel "Migz" Zubiri (UNA) with voter preference ratings of 33 percent.
"Given the statistical ties, the most probable final Team PNoy-UNA score is 9-3, with 12th place going to either Honasan or Enrile who are both from UNA," the analysis said.
The next probable scores, it added, "could either be 10-2 (if Magsaysay wins at the expense of Enrile) or else 8-4 (if Zubiri wins at the expense of either Angara or Trillanes)."
A 7-5 configuration is meanwhile found to be "least likely" and will only happen if "both Enrile and Zubiri win at the expense of both Angara and Trillanes."
See the candidates and their profiles: