The Daily Sweat: Seahawks try to rally around Geno Smith vs. Saints

·4 min read

The Seattle Seahawks have never been bad the past 10 seasons. Starting in 2012, they've never posted a losing season. 

They also had Russell Wilson that whole time. 

Seattle is in survival mode until Wilson can come back from finger surgery. They lost Geno Smith's first start, and on Monday night they're 4-point underdogs at BetMGM against the New Orleans Saints

The problem the Seahawks have now is that for years they did suboptimal things, but Wilson's greatness would bail them out and they'd believe their overall process was good. Now Wilson isn't there to make a handful of plays that can flip a game. Smith can't make those plays. If you're betting the Seahawks, you're hoping that they do enough around Smith to win or at least keep it close. 

The flip side to analyzing this game is figuring out the Saints, who have been inconsistent. Their best is very good. They also don't have a dynamic offense and they can't afford if Jameis Winston is going to turn it over. That makes it tough to take them as favorites. 

This seems like a game the 2-4 Seahawks must win. Home-field advantage doesn't mean much anymore, but if there is one left it might be in Seattle. The line has moved this week, from Saints -5 to -4.5 and then down to -4. That seems justified. If you can stomach taking Smith and his inevitable struggles, it's not the worst spot for the Seahawks. They need to win. Maybe that urgency will be enough to at least cover the spread. 

Geno Smith will try to lead the Seahawks to a win in his second start this season. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
Geno Smith will try to lead the Seahawks to a win in his second start this season. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)

Here's a first look at the sports betting slate for Monday: 

What props do we like for Monday night? 

The line for Geno Smith and Jameis Winston's interceptions is 0.5. For Winston, the odds are -110 that he'll throw one interception, and knowing Winston's history of forcing things with bad decisions, I'm willing to bet that he'll throw a pick. The odds for Smith going over 0.5 interceptions is a heftier -190, and while that's not as enticing as Winston's odds, I'll punch that ticket too. 

Two other props to look at: Marquez Callaway over 43.5 receiving yards and DK Metcalf under 58.5 receiving yards. Callaway has put up 74 and 85 yards the last two games, and had eight targets in New Orleans' last game as Winston's trust in him has grown. Metcalf will probably draw Marshon Lattimore in coverage, and he has Smith throwing him the ball. 

NBA, NHL have strong slates

If you want a second screen for basketball or hockey, it's a pretty good night. 

There are nine NBA games and nine NHL games. Perhaps the most interesting NBA game is the Washington Wizards at the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets were the clear favorite to win the NBA title coming into the year, but they're a surprising 1-2 to start the season. The Nets lost at home to the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday. New-look Washington has looked pretty good during a 2-0 start, the Wizards are 7.5-point underdogs on Monday and maybe there's money to be made fading the overvalued Nets. 

One of the most interesting NHL matchups has the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning at the Buffalo Sabres, who are off to a surprising 3-1-1 start that is backed up by advanced stats. The Sabres are +165, and maybe worth a shot to test if their hot start is legit. 

Who cashed tickets this weekend? 

The Atlanta Braves beat the Los Angeles Dodgers as a +125 underdog in Game 6 to advance to the World Series. The Braves were +1000 to win the World Series before opening day and +1200 before the playoffs started. 

The most disappointing outcomes to bettors in college football were probably Coastal Carolina losing to Appalachian State as 4.5-point favorites and Oklahoma failing to cover as a 38.5-point favorite against Kansas. Both sides were very popular with bettors. 

In the NFL, home teams finally had a good week. Among the 10 games on Sunday before Colts-49ers, home teams covered the spread eight times. That included big favorites Green Bay, Tampa Bay and Arizona. 

What's the best bet? 

It'll be the Winston interception prop. I'll take the over 0.5 interceptions at -110 odds. Winston is notorious for his turnovers and it will always feel like the right side betting on him to throw just one pick. 

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