These six NFL prop bets have some big fantasy football impacts

·3 min read

Player props are a fun way to get some skin into the NFL season, and we can often merge props and fantasy to try to serve two interests at once.

Here are six NFL Player Props I like at Bet MGM, and I’ll try to weave in a fantasy takeaway as well.

Dalvin Cook under 13.5 rushing touchdowns (-125)

To be clear, I’d go under this number for anyone. It’s very difficult for any running back to stay on the field for a full season, and we know Cook has yet to do it through four years. Sure, he smashed the touchdown prop last year, but you know what regression is and what it means. I’m also fine if you don’t want to select Cook with the No. 2 pick in your draft, given the state of the Vikings offensive line and Cook’s medical history.

Rob Gronkowski over 475 receiving yards (-110)

This prop is mostly a bet on Gronkowski staying on the field. Gronkowski’s easily beat this number for his entire career, even when he played two short seasons in New England (eight and seven games, respectively).

Okay, I get it; that version of power Gronk is gone for good. But Gronkowski collected 623 yards last year, and now gets an extra game to play with. Even in a crowded Tampa Bay passing game, he's likely to remain involved. He’s even a more fun pick in fantasy, when touchdown equity kicks in. (I’m also on board if you want to take Gronkowski over on five receiving touchdowns.)

Trevor Lawrence over 325.5 rushing yards (-110)

Lawrence figures to collect rushing yards in part through designed runs, but most of all through athleticism and the folly of youth. As he gathers more experience, he’ll figure out how to turn broken plays into downfield throws, not risky scrambles. If Lawrence can last the full season, this ticket should cash in advance of Christmas.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) during a preseason NFL football game New Orleans Saints, Monday, Aug. 23, 2021, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Tyler Kaufman)
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) during a preseason NFL football game New Orleans Saints, Monday, Aug. 23, 2021, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Tyler Kaufman)

(This doesn’t mean Lawrence is my rookie-QB fantasy target, although his floor is the highest. Zach Wilson is going to start right away and is gettable 85 draft picks later in national ADP.)

Mark Andrews over 6.5 receiving touchdowns (-125)

Although there have been bumps in the road, Andrews did beat this number two straight years, despite ordinary target counts (98 is his best). I would have ignored this prop had rookie Rashod Bateman been ready to start the year, but with Bateman out indefinitely, Andrews is a dunk to lead this team in red-zone opportunity again, at least when Baltimore looks to pass. And given the talents of Lamar Jackson, no Ravens' opponent is likely to get off the bus focused on bracketing Andrews.

Kadarius Toney under 524.5 receiving yards (-145)

You have to swallow extra juice and I get it, that’s not for everybody. But Toney’s been a slow onboard in camp, and the Giants have significant talent in front of him. Maybe you want to bet on Jason Garrett’s chops or the maturation of Daniel Jones — I don’t. I suspect Toney labors through something close to a redshirt year, and even when he does play, the Giants aren’t able to unlock him. The only member of this passing game I’m drafting proactively is Sterling Shepard.

A.J. Green under 550.5 receiving yards (-110)

Throw a dart and pick a plausible explanation. Maybe it’s a bet against Kliff Kingsbury, play designer, or Kyler Murray, downfield passer. Maybe it’s a bet against a receiver in his 30s, or a receiver struggling to stay healthy at the end of his career. Maybe it’s all those things. Arizona looks like the worst offense in the NFC West, and Murray’s goal-line scoring is going to mess up the fantasy value for many of his teammates.

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